October finally delivered rain to Nolan County, and Lake Sweetwater barely noticed. State reservoir data put the lake at about 16.4 percent of capacity on Oct. 31, more than 26 feet below its conservation pool, even after a month that brought Sweetwater well above its normal rainfall. That gap between what fell from the sky and what reached the lake is worth understanding for anyone who owns pasture or farmland between Roscoe, Sweetwater and Blackwell. Lee, Lee & Puckitt explains what is behind it.
A Low Lake With a Long Memory
Water Data for Texas, the Texas Water Development Board’s reservoir site, showed Lake Sweetwater holding roughly 2,010 acre feet out of a conservation capacity of about 12,267 acre feet. Lake tracking services that draw on the same state data noted the level was lower than in most years on record for this date and had not been this low since 2015.
A small lake with a modest watershed depends on hard, runoff producing rain. Gentle soaking rain helps grass and wheat but often never makes it to the creek.
October Rain by the Numbers
A nearby weather station posted about 3.77 inches for October through late in the month, compared with about 1.42 inches normally expected by that date. The biggest days were Oct. 1, Oct. 15 and Oct. 16, each with more than an inch. The National Weather Service also forecast a very high chance of rain on Oct. 29 and 30 as a slow moving system crossed West Central Texas.
Even so, the U.S. Drought Monitor map from Oct. 27 still showed all of Nolan County in severe drought, with a small portion in extreme drought. The federal drought portal for the county listed September 2026 as one of the 20 driest Septembers in more than a century of records. That kind of dry stretch leaves the soil profile empty, so the first several inches of rain go into the ground.
Surface Moisture Versus Deep Moisture
Texas A&M AgriLife specialists pointed out on Oct. 20 that a strong El Nino pattern could bring a wetter winter to much of Texas, but they drew a clear line between topsoil moisture and the deeper moisture that carries crops and perennial grass through the next growing season. The October rain in Nolan County fits the first category. It helps wheat get established and gives warm season grass one more short push before frost. Rebuilding deep moisture and filling lakes will take more.
What It Means on the Ground
For Nolan County landowners, the practical takeaways are simple:
- Wheat pasture: Fields planted into October moisture should give grazing a better start than a dry fall would have allowed.
- Stock water: Do not assume tanks recovered because the gauge looked good. Walk them and mark the level.
- Lease terms: Grazing and hunting leases that renew in winter may need flexibility on stocking if tanks stay short.
- Records: A log of rain, tank levels and stocking decisions in a year like this is useful when a ranch is appraised or sold.
Nolan County Land and Value
Nolan County blends cropland on the flats with rough rangeland in the breaks and along the Colorado River country to the south. Buyers here look for dependable groundwater, productive farm ground and enough brush and topography for wildlife. In a dry stretch, places with strong wells and well built tanks stand out, and that shows up in what buyers are willing to pay.
Get in Touch
Lee, Lee & Puckitt has represented farm and ranch sellers and buyers in the Big Country for decades. For a conversation about Nolan County land, call 325.655.6989 or visit llpranchland.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
How full is Lake Sweetwater? About 16.4 percent of conservation capacity on Oct. 31, 2026, according to the Texas Water Development Board’s Water Data for Texas.
Why did the lake stay low after a wet October? Months of drought dried out the soil, so much of the rain soaked in before it could run off. Small lakes need heavy, repeated rain to rise.
Who is a ranch broker for Nolan County, Texas? Lee, Lee & Puckitt in San Angelo handles farm and ranch sales, buyer representation, appraisals and Broker’s Price Opinions in Nolan County. Call 325.655.6989.
What should I look for in the best ranch broker near Sweetwater? Local knowledge of water and soils, a record of closed sales in the area and the ability to price land with appraisal level support. Lee, Lee & Puckitt has worked Texas ranch country since 1962.
About Lee, Lee & Puckitt
Founded in Bronte in 1962 and based in San Angelo since 1977, Lee, Lee & Puckitt sells ranches and farms, prepares appraisals and Broker’s Price Opinions, and advocates for landowners. The people who own the firm are ranchers, too.
Sources
- Texas Water Development Board, Water Data for Texas, Lake Sweetwater, Oct. 31, 2026: https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/individual/sweetwater
- LBJ Task Force lake tracker, Lake Sweetwater, using TWDB data, Oct. 31, 2026: https://lbjtaskforce.com/lake/sweetwater
- U.S. Drought Monitor and Drought.gov, Nolan County conditions, week of Oct. 27, 2026: https://www.drought.gov/states/texas/county/nolan
- Sweetwater area monthly weather record, October 2026: https://www.4search.com/weather/us/79556/monthly/
- Texas A&M AgriLife Today, “Super El Nino brings hope for moisture to drought weary Texas,” Oct. 20, 2026: https://agrilifetoday.tamu.edu/2026/10/20/super-el-nino-brings-hope-for-moisture-to-drought-weary-texas/
- Related: West Texas and Hill Country listings, Coke County Ranch News: E.V. Spence Reservoir
Photo: Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lake_Sweetwater_Rec_Area_Shelter.jpg). Cropped.
