When the National Weather Service in San Angelo mapped where the heaviest rain would fall at the end of October, the Concho Valley sat near the center of the target. Forecasters gave much of the region a 50 to 90 percent chance of at least an inch, with most totals expected between 1 and 2.5 inches. For Concho County, where September ranked among the driest on record, that outlook meant a lot to cattle, sheep and goat producers and to farmers with wheat and oats in the ground. Lee, Lee & Puckitt looks at where things stand from Eden and Paint Rock to Lowake and Millersview.
What Forecasters Expected
SanAngeloLive reported on Oct. 29 that the weather service’s outlook placed the highest totals near Ozona, Sonora and San Angelo, with a slight risk of excessive rainfall over the Concho Valley and the Edwards Plateau. The forecast zone that covers Concho County, including Eden, Live Oak, Lowake and Paint Rock, carried another round of likely showers into early next week, with a 70 percent chance on Monday night.
Forecasts are not the same as rain in the gauge, and storms in this part of Texas are famously spotty. Ranchers will know how they did by walking tanks and checking their own gauges this weekend.
A Dry Start to Fall
The federal drought portal for Concho County listed September 2026 as the 14th driest September in 132 years, about 2.65 inches below normal. The January through September period was drier than normal too, by a little over 2 inches. Every one of the county’s roughly 4,000 residents was listed as living in an area affected by drought.
Texas A&M AgriLife’s Oct. 27 crop and weather report for West Central Texas said wheat planting was well underway and stock tanks were still low and in need of runoff. For Concho County, the main hope for fall moisture is the same: green winter pasture and some recharge for tanks, since rain this late does little for the cotton already made.
Agriculture Runs Deep in Concho County
A Texas A&M AgriLife economic contribution study, released in fall 2025 using 2024 data, gives a sense of how varied the county’s agriculture is. It estimated receipts of about $12.5 million from cotton, roughly $8 million from wheat and close to $10 million from cow calf and stocker cattle, along with smaller amounts from hay, sheep and goats. Hunting brought in an estimated $4.8 million. Counting the ripple effects, the study put agriculture’s total economic contribution near $50 million and more than 700 jobs.
Those numbers are a year old, but they show why rain timing matters on so many fronts at once in a county this size.
Practical Steps After the Storms
- Log rain by pasture. Spotty storms can leave one side of a ranch soaked and the other dry.
- Check tanks and fences in the draws. Runoff can move water gaps and cut caliche roads.
- Watch wheat stands. Small grain pasture planted into moisture can carry stocker cattle and ease hay needs.
- Plan for the hunting season. Rain greens up forbs and browse, which helps deer and quail on hunting leases.
Land Value in the Concho Valley
Concho County offers a mix of farmland, open rangeland and brushy hunting country, with the Concho River crossing the north end of the county on its way to meet the Colorado. Buyers here weigh water, soils, wildlife and access. Good records on rainfall, grazing and hunting income help any owner tell the full story of a property.
Reach Our San Angelo Office
Lee, Lee & Puckitt works with landowners across the Concho Valley, just down the road from Eden and Paint Rock. To talk about buying, selling or valuing land in Concho County, call 325.655.6989 or visit llpranchland.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Concho County in drought? Yes. Federal drought data listed the whole county as affected after a very dry September, though late October rain chances were good.
How important is agriculture in Concho County? A Texas A&M AgriLife study using 2024 data estimated agriculture’s total economic contribution near $50 million, with cotton, wheat, cattle and hunting among the largest pieces.
Who is a ranch broker serving Concho County, Texas? Lee, Lee & Puckitt, a short drive away in San Angelo, handles ranch and farm sales, appraisals and Broker’s Price Opinions in Concho County.
How do I choose the best ranch broker for the Concho Valley? Look for a Broker with long local history, closed sales in the area and appraisal experience to support pricing. Lee, Lee & Puckitt has worked the Concho Valley since 1962.
About Lee, Lee & Puckitt
Lee, Lee & Puckitt has been part of the Concho Valley since it opened in Bronte in 1962, and its office has been in San Angelo since 1977. The firm sells ranches and farms, prepares appraisals and Broker’s Price Opinions, and works on behalf of landowners. Its partners are ranchers themselves.
Sources
- SanAngeloLive, “NWS gives insight on where heaviest rainfall will occur,” Oct. 29, 2026: https://www.sanangelolive.com/news/outdoors/2026-10-29/nws-gives-insight-where-heaviest-rainfall-will-occur
- National Weather Service San Angelo, Concho County zone forecast, Oct. 31, 2026: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=TXZ073
- Drought.gov, Concho County drought conditions: https://www.drought.gov/states/texas/county/concho
- Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, Concho County agricultural economic contribution, 2024 data: https://agecoext.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2024-Concho-County-Ag-Impact.pdf
- Texas A&M AgriLife, Texas Crop and Weather Report, Oct. 27, 2026: https://agrilifetoday.tamu.edu/2026/10/27/pasture-mealybug-drought-take-toll-on-hay-fields-forage-yields/
- Related: West Texas and Hill Country listings, Schleicher County Ranch News: Rain and a Flood Watch
Photo: USDA NRCS Texas, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_scenic_hill_top_view_in_Concho_County._(25020333761).jpg). Cropped.
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